Probabilistic measures of HIV-1 transmission in different HIV-1 key population groups of Larkana, Pakistan

Authors

  • Syed Rizwan-ul-Hasan Department of Computer Sciences, DHA Suffa University, Karachi, Pakistan
  • Abiha Abdullah Medical College, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
  • Shakil Ahmed Sir Syed University of Engineering and Technology, Karachi, Pakistan
  • Sharaf Ali Shah Bridge Consultants Foundation, Karachi, Pakistan
  • Fatima Mir Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
  • Syed Hani Abidi

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.47391/JPMA.0005

Abstract

Objective: To estimate the probability of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 transmission from different key HIV population groups using probabilistic modelling.

Methods: This study was conducted in December 2020. A probabilistic model was used to estimate the probability of HIV-1 transmission from different key HIV population groups in Larkana. Our model was run on three probabilistic assumptions: 1) each replication gave two conceivable results: ‘true’ or ‘false’; 2) the chance of giving a ‘true’ result is the same for each replication; and 3) the replications are independent - ‘true’ in one will not impact the likelihood of ‘true’ in another.

Results: The results estimated the probability of HIV transmission in key HIV population groups in Larkana to range between 0.42–0.54 per trial, where the highest probability of transmission was predicted for men who have sex with men (MSM; 0.54 per trial), followed by transgender (TG; 0.46 per trial) and people who inject drugs (PWID; 0.457 per trial).

Conclusion: Our results suggest that there is a high likelihood of HIV transmission by key population groups in Larkana, such as MSM, TG, and PWID. Mathematic models, such as one proposed in our study can aid the HIV and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) control programmes in evaluating and optimising the strategies in controlling transmission of HIV from the key population groups.

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Published

2021-08-07

How to Cite

Syed Rizwan-ul-Hasan, Abiha Abdullah, Shakil Ahmed, Sharaf Ali Shah, Fatima Mir, & Abidi , S. H. (2021). Probabilistic measures of HIV-1 transmission in different HIV-1 key population groups of Larkana, Pakistan . Journal of the Pakistan Medical Association, 26–29. https://doi.org/10.47391/JPMA.0005

Issue

Section

Research Article